Louisiana’s Path to the College Football Playoff
Louisiana’s College Football Playoff path is becoming a thrilling storyline as the Ragin’ Cajuns position themselves for a potential spot among the nation’s elite. Louisiana is poised to make a significant impact in the CFP conversation.
Favorable Remaining Schedule
Louisiana has three winnable games left:
- South Alabama: Talented but inconsistent, and Louisiana’s balanced offense can exploit their defensive lapses.
- Troy: A tough opponent, but Louisiana gets them at home, where they excel.
- ULM: A historically one-sided rivalry in Louisiana’s favor, and ULM’s recent struggles suggest that trend will continue.
An 11-1 finish in the regular season would likely catapult Louisiana into the Top 20, positioning them as one of the best Group of Five teams in the nation.
Competitive Against Top Teams
Louisiana’s only loss came in a thrilling 41-33 shootout against Tulane, a ranked opponent.
- The game was a back-and-forth battle, with both teams showcasing impressive offensive firepower and clutch playmaking. Louisiana’s balanced attack pushed Tulane to the limit, proving they belong in the conversation as one of the top Group of Five teams.
- Tulane benefited from two critical plays: a kickoff return touchdown and a pick-six.
- The matchup underscored Louisiana’s ability to compete with top-tier teams and their resilience in a high-stakes contest.
The game was originally scheduled for prime time, but it was moved to an 11:00 AM kickoff, and extreme heat made conditions challenging. Despite this, Louisiana delivered one of the most entertaining games of the season.
The American Conference Factor
The American Athletic Conference is a key player in the Group of Five landscape, with Tulane, Army, and Navy all vying for dominance. Army’s 9-0 record has drawn national attention, but tough games against Notre Dame and UTSA remain. Tulane, despite two losses, remains a strong contender with a balanced team capable of beating top competition.
If chaos unfolds in the AAC—such as Army faltering against Notre Dame, UTSA or in the conference title game—Louisiana’s potential 12-1 record and Sun Belt Championship could make them the top Group of Five team. This scenario strengthens their case.
A Challenging but Winnable Conference Championship
Assuming Louisiana wins out, they’ll likely face a strong opponent in the Sun Belt Championship. The title game could feature:
- Georgia Southern: A team that led Boise State in the third quarter earlier this season and beat Georgia State, who defeated SEC foe Vanderbilt.
- James Madison: The Dukes scored an eye-popping 70 points against North Carolina earlier this season, showcasing their offensive firepower.
Both potential opponents would provide Louisiana with a high-quality win to solidify their résumé. Winning the Sun Belt Championship would give the Ragin’ Cajuns the boost needed to impress the CFP committee.
Competitive Odds and Path to the CFP
At +700 odds on FanDuel, Louisiana is a strong value pick. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ path is less cluttered with potential elimination games compared to Army and Tulane, whose collision in the AAC Championship is almost inevitable given their strong performances this season.
Boise State (-310) has a tougher road with games at:
- San Jose State and Wyoming: Two challenging environments.
- Oregon State: A capable Power Five opponent.
- MW Championship vs. Colorado State: Colorado State is on a four-game win streak and could derail Boise’s playoff hopes.
If Boise falters, Louisiana is in prime position to make a New Year’s Six bowl or even crash the CFP.
CFP Chaos Scenario
Louisiana’s playoff chances depend on a few critical factors:
- Power Five chaos, with multiple two-loss teams in contention.
- Boise State dropping one game in the regular season and losing the Mountain West Championship to Colorado State or another rising contender.
- AAC turmoil, as the American Athletic Conference is a critical factor in the Group of Five race.
- Army’s 9-0 start is impressive, but they face major tests against Notre Dame and UTSA before the AAC Championship.
- Tulane, despite two losses, has a strong and balanced team that could dominate.
- Navy, though an underdog, could play spoiler in key matchups.
- Louisiana winning out and claiming the Sun Belt Championship, securing their status as the best Group of Five team.
Louisiana’s offense is a force to be reckoned with, featuring a three-headed monster at running back, a stacked wide receiver corps, and top-quality tight ends who can make plays all over the field. With a veteran quarterback who excels at both passing and running, paired with one of the top-rated offensive lines in the country, Louisiana’s attack is versatile and explosive.
On the defensive side, Louisiana is showing its true potential, emerging as ball hawks who are exceptional at taking the ball away and creating turnovers. The defense is coming on strong, with a relentless pursuit of the ball that has helped turn the tide in close games. Additionally, Louisiana’s special teams have been outstanding, adding another layer to an already impressive squad. With this balance of offense, defense, and special teams, Louisiana is primed to make a strong push for the playoffs if they finish 12-1.
G5 Playoff Contenders
Boise State (8-1) -310
@ SJSU, @ Wyoming, Oregon State
Army (9-0) +700
@ Notre Dame, UTSA, Navy
Louisiana (8-1) +700
South Alabama, Troy, @ ULM
Tulane (8-2) +850
@ Navy, Memphis
Geaux Cajuns!